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	<title>Comments on: South America and Its Likelihood of a Season of Splendid Little Wars: An Analysis of Arms Races and Regional Geopolitics</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/#utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics</link>
	<description>COHA is an NGO specialized in monitoring Latin American and Canadian Relations for more than 30 years...</description>
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		<title>By: Federico L.</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34512</link>
		<dc:creator>Federico L.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:18:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34512</guid>
		<description>&quot;Peru and Chile: Historical tensions tracing back to the 19th century War of the Pacific include an ongoing Santiago-initiated dispute over the maritime border between the neighboring countries.&quot; 
 
 
&quot;Santiago-initiated&quot; ? Must be kidding... on what do you base this? It&#039;s Peru, who is demanding Chile to change the current status quo. Badly researched... </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;Peru and Chile: Historical tensions tracing back to the 19th century War of the Pacific include an ongoing Santiago-initiated dispute over the maritime border between the neighboring countries.&quot; </p>
<p>&quot;Santiago-initiated&quot; ? Must be kidding&#8230; on what do you base this? It&#039;s Peru, who is demanding Chile to change the current status quo. Badly researched&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Armando Rozario</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34489</link>
		<dc:creator>Armando Rozario</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Oct 2009 23:23:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34489</guid>
		<description>Alex Sanchez,

Hillary Clinton seem to be very excited! Would Washington sponsor many &quot;splendid little wars&quot; in Latin America via Colombia next year?

I have already posted a link to your article; Brazilian journalist Laerte Braga also wrote an article about THE WAR IN OUR BACKYARD, here is the URL:

http://engforum.pravda.ru/showthread.php?p=2967733

Armando Rozário - Cabo Frio, Brazil - October 25, 2009</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alex Sanchez,</p>
<p>Hillary Clinton seem to be very excited! Would Washington sponsor many &#8220;splendid little wars&#8221; in Latin America via Colombia next year?</p>
<p>I have already posted a link to your article; Brazilian journalist Laerte Braga also wrote an article about THE WAR IN OUR BACKYARD, here is the URL:</p>
<p><a href="http://engforum.pravda.ru/showthread.php?p=2967733" rel="nofollow">http://engforum.pravda.ru/showthread.php?p=2967733</a></p>
<p>Armando Rozário &#8211; Cabo Frio, Brazil &#8211; October 25, 2009</p>
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		<title>By: Mackeran</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34374</link>
		<dc:creator>Mackeran</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:00:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34374</guid>
		<description>I read a few topics. I respect your work and added blog to favorites.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I read a few topics. I respect your work and added blog to favorites.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick Joseph</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34354</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick Joseph</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:50:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34354</guid>
		<description>An excellent article and analysis. One aspect relating to security issues in SA you touch on only briefly, but I think may play a more significant role in the future in avoidance of conflict in the region is the push toward regional integration, primarily at the behest of Brazil, and in particular President Luiz Ignacio Lula de Silva. The incremental steps taken over the last eight years to bring about regional integration ultimately will prove Brazil not just a power but a leader. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An excellent article and analysis. One aspect relating to security issues in SA you touch on only briefly, but I think may play a more significant role in the future in avoidance of conflict in the region is the push toward regional integration, primarily at the behest of Brazil, and in particular President Luiz Ignacio Lula de Silva. The incremental steps taken over the last eight years to bring about regional integration ultimately will prove Brazil not just a power but a leader.</p>
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		<title>By: Chris Herz</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34346</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris Herz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2009 18:09:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34346</guid>
		<description>As a dissident US citizen I need to say that peace in South America will last only until the USA are driven from Central and Western Asia.  At that point if she wishes to remain even a regional power she will have to expropriate resources and markets from Latin America, reverting to her historical pattern.   
In the case of Venezuela it was myself who originally suggested, via Vheadline.com that President Chavez consider buying a shall arms factory from Russia in order to arm a popular militia on the Swiss or Cuban pattern.  This is under way.  Only such measures will procure for  that nation some reasonable level of security from a dangerous and predatory rogue state on the north shore of the Gulf of Mexico. 
US military operations proceed in Mexico and Colombia as we write; limited only by the exigencies imposed upon her manpower and other resources by the oil wars in the middle east. 
Elements of her security and intelligence services show open partiality to the Honduran golpistas and very possibly are the instigators of the same. 
There is the threat to South America -- it is North America as usual. 
 
Chris Herz 
vheadline.com </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a dissident US citizen I need to say that peace in South America will last only until the USA are driven from Central and Western Asia.  At that point if she wishes to remain even a regional power she will have to expropriate resources and markets from Latin America, reverting to her historical pattern.<br />
In the case of Venezuela it was myself who originally suggested, via Vheadline.com that President Chavez consider buying a shall arms factory from Russia in order to arm a popular militia on the Swiss or Cuban pattern.  This is under way.  Only such measures will procure for  that nation some reasonable level of security from a dangerous and predatory rogue state on the north shore of the Gulf of Mexico.<br />
US military operations proceed in Mexico and Colombia as we write; limited only by the exigencies imposed upon her manpower and other resources by the oil wars in the middle east.<br />
Elements of her security and intelligence services show open partiality to the Honduran golpistas and very possibly are the instigators of the same.<br />
There is the threat to South America &#8212; it is North America as usual. </p>
<p>Chris Herz<br />
vheadline.com</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Sanchez</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34342</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex Sanchez</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2009 15:13:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34342</guid>
		<description>Pablo, 
 
Thank you for the notes. You do raise some very good points. Unfortunately, due to space issues, I couldn&#039;t expand my article more. The topic is worthy of a thesis as 4400 words falls way short of addressing all possible points that should be brought up.  
 
As for sources, just begin with the basics, research regional newspapers for articles and expand from there: La Republica, El Comercio, El Universal (its Mexico but they&#039;re very good), La Tercera, Clarin, El Mercurio, El Nacional, El Mundo, to get a general idea. There&#039;s always some new article being published and from there you can learn new facts to expand your detail. 
Also check the website of the Observatorio Cono Sur, they&#039;re pretty good. 
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.controlciudadano.org/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;http://www.controlciudadano.org/&lt;/a&gt; is good for Venezuelan issues </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pablo, </p>
<p>Thank you for the notes. You do raise some very good points. Unfortunately, due to space issues, I couldn&#039;t expand my article more. The topic is worthy of a thesis as 4400 words falls way short of addressing all possible points that should be brought up.  </p>
<p>As for sources, just begin with the basics, research regional newspapers for articles and expand from there: La Republica, El Comercio, El Universal (its Mexico but they&#039;re very good), La Tercera, Clarin, El Mercurio, El Nacional, El Mundo, to get a general idea. There&#039;s always some new article being published and from there you can learn new facts to expand your detail.<br />
Also check the website of the Observatorio Cono Sur, they&#039;re pretty good.<br />
<a href="http://www.controlciudadano.org/" target="_blank">http://www.controlciudadano.org/</a> is good for Venezuelan issues</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Sanchez</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34341</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex Sanchez</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2009 15:06:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34341</guid>
		<description>Mi general, 
 
Muchas gracias por la nota. Como siempre, sigo a sus ordenes. 
 
Alex </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mi general, </p>
<p>Muchas gracias por la nota. Como siempre, sigo a sus ordenes. </p>
<p>Alex</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Sanchez</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34340</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex Sanchez</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:53:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34340</guid>
		<description>Armen, 
 
Thank you for your comments. 
 
1. I agree that some of the purchases are to replace obsolete equipment. I should have made it clearer in the piece. For example Bol. needs new rifles to replace its old AK and FAL. Vzla needs the Russian warplanes as the U.S. won&#039;t give it new parts for its aging F-16s (and I&#039;ve mentioned this in previous pieces). Peru certainly needed to upgrade its Mi helicopters for internal issue against Shining Path. 
Having said that, does Brazil &quot;really&quot; need a nuclear powered submarine? Does Vzla really need 100,000 AK for its armed forces + the rifles it already possesses + a Kalashnikov factory within its borders? Does Chile really need to buy so many F16 planes + other major acquisitions? Regarding Santiago, the purchases may be just as a way to appease the local mil. as its 3 neighbors hardly pose a threat right now. Argentina&#039;s ffaa barely have funds. Bolivia&#039;s Russian credit will cover some basic acquisitions to retain a minimal deterrent force. Peru has a strong military but its major security issue is internal right now. 
 
Any military will argue that their purchases are for necessary modernization, however this is viewed differently by its immediate neighbors. Hence we fall into a discussion of points of view, I gave mine here and you&#039;re certainly welcome to disagree. If you see the current purchases as simple and necessary modernization, meaning countries don&#039;t pose a threat to each other, I certainly hope so as I am from that region and have friends there and don&#039;t want to see a war happening. I see the purchases as part of an arms race but I do not think this will mean warfare and I base my argument on Lat Am history. 
 
2. Your interpretation of the Ecuador-Chile deals essentially portrays Ecuador as a poor country with poor military resources, with ships that can barely stay afloat, hence not a mil. threat to anyone. This deal and rapprochement is seen differently in Lima. 
 
Best, 
Alex </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Armen, </p>
<p>Thank you for your comments. </p>
<p>1. I agree that some of the purchases are to replace obsolete equipment. I should have made it clearer in the piece. For example Bol. needs new rifles to replace its old AK and FAL. Vzla needs the Russian warplanes as the U.S. won&#039;t give it new parts for its aging F-16s (and I&#039;ve mentioned this in previous pieces). Peru certainly needed to upgrade its Mi helicopters for internal issue against Shining Path.<br />
Having said that, does Brazil &quot;really&quot; need a nuclear powered submarine? Does Vzla really need 100,000 AK for its armed forces + the rifles it already possesses + a Kalashnikov factory within its borders? Does Chile really need to buy so many F16 planes + other major acquisitions? Regarding Santiago, the purchases may be just as a way to appease the local mil. as its 3 neighbors hardly pose a threat right now. Argentina&#039;s ffaa barely have funds. Bolivia&#039;s Russian credit will cover some basic acquisitions to retain a minimal deterrent force. Peru has a strong military but its major security issue is internal right now. </p>
<p>Any military will argue that their purchases are for necessary modernization, however this is viewed differently by its immediate neighbors. Hence we fall into a discussion of points of view, I gave mine here and you&#039;re certainly welcome to disagree. If you see the current purchases as simple and necessary modernization, meaning countries don&#039;t pose a threat to each other, I certainly hope so as I am from that region and have friends there and don&#039;t want to see a war happening. I see the purchases as part of an arms race but I do not think this will mean warfare and I base my argument on Lat Am history. </p>
<p>2. Your interpretation of the Ecuador-Chile deals essentially portrays Ecuador as a poor country with poor military resources, with ships that can barely stay afloat, hence not a mil. threat to anyone. This deal and rapprochement is seen differently in Lima. </p>
<p>Best,<br />
Alex</p>
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		<title>By: Alex S</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34339</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex S</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:41:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34339</guid>
		<description>Pedro, 
 
Certainly, the fear of U.S. troops crossing into neighboring countries for anti-drug operations is a major concern. Then again, the U.S. has been in Colombia and Ecuador for a number of years, as well as Curacao and Aruba to Vzla&#039;s north, so if they were thinking of carrying such operations, they probably have already done this in the past. I find it interesting that in spite of the U.S. bases in Col, the cap number of U.S. mil and civilian contractors will remain the same. 
 
My major concern with an increased mil. presence is if Chavez will feel cornered by these developments. As I mentioned in a previous piece, Vzla will now have US troops on one side (Col), the north Aruba and Cur, with mil. exercises having taken place in the recent past in Guyana. 
 
I&#039;m hopeful that Bogota, Washington and Brasilia will be able to coordinate anti-drug efforts. I think there is the military will, for this, but politics has a way to complicate things. Of course, cracking on cocaine labs in the Amazon in the tri-border area is not enough of a solution to actually solve the drug problem. 
 
Best, 
Alex Sanchez </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pedro, </p>
<p>Certainly, the fear of U.S. troops crossing into neighboring countries for anti-drug operations is a major concern. Then again, the U.S. has been in Colombia and Ecuador for a number of years, as well as Curacao and Aruba to Vzla&#039;s north, so if they were thinking of carrying such operations, they probably have already done this in the past. I find it interesting that in spite of the U.S. bases in Col, the cap number of U.S. mil and civilian contractors will remain the same. </p>
<p>My major concern with an increased mil. presence is if Chavez will feel cornered by these developments. As I mentioned in a previous piece, Vzla will now have US troops on one side (Col), the north Aruba and Cur, with mil. exercises having taken place in the recent past in Guyana. </p>
<p>I&#039;m hopeful that Bogota, Washington and Brasilia will be able to coordinate anti-drug efforts. I think there is the military will, for this, but politics has a way to complicate things. Of course, cracking on cocaine labs in the Amazon in the tri-border area is not enough of a solution to actually solve the drug problem. </p>
<p>Best,<br />
Alex Sanchez</p>
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		<title>By: Armen Kouyoumdjian</title>
		<link>http://www.coha.org/south-america-and-its-likelihood-of-a-season-of-splendid-little-wars-an-analysis-of-arms-races-and-regional-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-34334</link>
		<dc:creator>Armen Kouyoumdjian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2009 11:14:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coha.org/?p=6760#comment-34334</guid>
		<description>Well apart from the errors of fact and appreciation, the style is sloppy. To all the navy&#039;s ASMAR shipyards as &quot;a Chilean shipping company&quot; (shipping companies transport, and do not build or &quot;upgrade&quot; vessels). The same reference mentions the &quot;upgrade&quot; of two Ecuador submarines, whereas in fact they are repairing two out of service vessels which barely managed the trip down the coast from Ecuador. 

In fact, throughout the article, there is no reference to the fact that much of the purchases are to replace obsolete, not to say clapped out, mat</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well apart from the errors of fact and appreciation, the style is sloppy. To all the navy&#8217;s ASMAR shipyards as &#8220;a Chilean shipping company&#8221; (shipping companies transport, and do not build or &#8220;upgrade&#8221; vessels). The same reference mentions the &#8220;upgrade&#8221; of two Ecuador submarines, whereas in fact they are repairing two out of service vessels which barely managed the trip down the coast from Ecuador. </p>
<p>In fact, throughout the article, there is no reference to the fact that much of the purchases are to replace obsolete, not to say clapped out, mat</p>
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