The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) very likely will be victorious in this year’s presidential election in Mexico. Your article indicates that voters will likely choose the PRI candidate on Election Day, and while I agree with your assumption, there are a few vital factors concerning the drug war that you failed to mention.
Mexico’s ongoing trouble with drug-related violence raises questions. First, will the estimated 50,000 deaths recently resulting from the country’s drug war have jeopardized the presidential aspirations of PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota? These deaths seemed to have followed President Calderón’s decision to take on the drug lords by using the military. Second, will the cartels patent influence play a determinative role? Forbes estimates the value of one drug lord, Joaquin Guzman Loera, better known as “El Chapo,” is roughly worth $1 billion USD. Faced with more interference than ever, the drug kingpins have never had more of an incentive to tamper with an election.
Regardless of how these factors play out, the victor will be in a position to take credit for the recent plateau in drug-related deaths; an idea asserted in your “Plateaus and Pitfalls,” article, the recent 8% slowdown in deaths, could result in a more favorable public image of the eventual victor.