March 27, 2009
Drug War Chronicle
More than 9,000 people — including more than 600 police and soldiers — have been killed in prohibition-related violence in Mexico since President Felipe Calderon sent out the Mexican armed forces to subdue the cartels at the beginning of 2007, with the pace of killing accelerating last year and early this year. Now, some 45,000 Mexican army troops are part of the campaign, including more than 8,000 that are currently occupying Ciudad Juarez, across from El Paso, which has seen some of the highest levels of violence anywhere in the country. More than 1,600 were killed there last year, and more than a hundred so far this year.
Calderon intervened in ongoing rivalries between various trafficking organizations, helping to turn what had been turf wars for valuable drug smuggling franchises into a multi-sided battle pitching the cartels against each other and Mexican police and soldiers. The prize is a cross-border smuggling fortune estimated at anywhere between $10 billion and $40 billion and based on Americans’ insatiable appetite for the drugs it loves to hate (or hates to love).
On Tuesday, the White House presented its plan to secure the border, including the disbursement of $700 million in previously authorized Plan Merida assistance to Mexico, ramped up enforcement on the US side of the border, and an increased emphasis on demand reduction in the US.
The Plan Merida aid will provide surveillance and information technologies, training for rule of law and justice reform, assistance to Mexican prosecutors in crafting effective witness protection programs, and five helicopters for the Mexican Army and Air Force and a surveillance aircraft for the Mexican Navy. Here in the US, the Department of Homeland Security is bringing its numerous resources to bear, including doubling Border Enforcement Security Task Forces, tripling the number of DHS intelligence analysts working the border, beefing up Immigration and Customs Enforcement staff in Mexico, bringing more surveillance technology to ports of entry, bringing more drug dogs to the border, and targeting flows of guns and money south as well as drugs north.
The DEA is adding 16 new agents on the border to its current 1,170 already there and forming four new Mobile Enforcement Teams to go after Mexican meth traffickers, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms is moving 100 agents to the border and continuing its program of tracing guns used in drug cartel violence. Even the FBI is getting in on the act by forming a Southwest Intelligence Group to act as a clearinghouse for all FBI activities involving Mexico.
“The whole package we announced today is not only about enforcement and stopping the flow of drugs into the United States and helping Mexico against these very brutal cartels, but it includes money for more drug courts and reduction in demand,” Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said in an interview Tuesday. “So, we look forward to working on the demand side as well as the supply side, but I’ll tell you, where the Department of Homeland Security is concerned, it’s all about border safety and security and making sure that spillover violence does not erupt in our own country.”
Secretary of State Clinton sang much the same tune in Mexico this week, but also bluntly accepted US responsibility for the violence, saying that decades of US anti-drug policies have been a failure and that US demand for drugs drove the trade.
“Clearly what we’ve been doing has not worked,” Clinton told reporters on her plane at the start of her two-day trip. “Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade,” she added. “Our inability to prevent weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police, of soldiers and civilians.”
Clinton’s visit came as the chorus calling for change in US prohibitionist drug policies is growing louder. Last month, former presidents of Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico called on the US to radically reassess its drug policies, and increasing concern over the violence in Mexico and its spillover in US border states is only turning up the volume of the calls for legalization.
Law enforcement on the border wants much more help — Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) has called for 1,000 more agents or even National Guard troops — but Zapata County (Texas) Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez, Jr., head of the Southwestern Border Sheriff’s Association, said the administration move was a start. “The plan the president announced is a help,” said Gonzalez. “But we still haven’t seen the plan that was supposed to be in place last year.”
Gonzalez’s remote Zapata County has not seen much spillover from the violence across the river, but that’s not the case elsewhere, the sheriff said. “As chairman of the association, I hear regularly from my colleagues that what we are seeing is spillover that has been going on for some time — extortions, kidnapping, robberies. What we’re concerned with now is that with the squeeze on in Mexico, there will be even more spillover here.”
While security officials and law enforcement were talking more drug war, other observers doubted that the initiative would have much impact on the cartels and could make an intractable problem even worse. But they also saw an opportunity to advance the cause of ending America’s reliance on drug prohibition as the primary approach to drug use.
“This is not a major departure from what was budgeted under the Bush administration,” said Ethan Nadelmann, executive director of the Drug Policy Alliance. “The most important assistance the US can provide is intelligence-related assets, as in Colombia in the 1980s and 1990s — CIA or NSA-type information that helps the Mexicans target the most violent and powerful of the traffickers. Providing financial assistance to help pay local police more is also helpful, but beefing up the border is largely symbolic and is responding to both legitimate concerns as well as media and political hysteria around this. This is not a departure, not a major new initiative.”
“The biggest problem in all this is that Calderon’s policies have thrown gasoline on the fire,” said Sanho Tree, drug policy analyst for the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, DC. “It was utterly foolish of Calderon to get in the middle of a cartel turf war. Those people are all about making money, and the violence isn’t going to decline until the cartels reach a modus vivendi among themselves. There are rumors they are trying to do that; they want the killing to stop so they can get back to business.”
Neither should we take much comfort in Mexico’s ability to occasionally kill or capture a leading cartel figure, said Tree. “It’s like killing Al Qaeda’s number three man,” he laughed grimly. “All it means is someone below him is going to move up, or there will be a struggle to see who replaces him.”
For Tree, the situation in Mexico is taking on the ominous aspect of Colombia in the 1990s, where the breakdown of public security led to vigilantism and death squad activity, the predecessors of the Colombian paramilitaries. “When people became to realize the state was powerless to stop prohibition-related violence, it opened the door for other criminal activities, including kidnapping, and what makes this really dangerous is that now the ability of the state to protect individuals comes into question.”
But Tree also noted that the situation in Mexico is forcing American media and policymakers to at least address calls for drug legalization. “This is doing what Colombia and Afghanistan couldn’t do, which is to bring the violence of prohibition right to our door step and rub our faces in it,” said Tree. “Calderon got in between some hornets’ nests with a fly swatter, and now people in both countries have to make a choice. Mexicans supported this at first, but when they realized this isn’t ending but is instead getting worse, they asked why he picked this fight.”
“I’m worried about the militarization of the border and the assumption that that will fix this,” said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington, DC. “On the other hand, it seems to be causing a growing crescendo of people wanting to talk about drug legalization. It’s as if a critical mass has been arrived at. The recent statement by the three Latin American presidents was a voltaic shock to get the discussion going, and with the violence in Mexico, one has to acknowledge that a preponderance of the evidence shows the present model for drug control is not working. Even though there is a huge, formidable self-interested drug prohibition lobby, the logic of legalization is becoming so compelling it becomes all but impossible not to address it.”
That political space to discuss legalization is changing things, Birns said. “Organizations like my own, which were timorous about taking on this issue now feel much more at ease with the clear recognition that everything else has failed. The possibility of legalization has to be seriously reviewed, inspected, and debated now.”
Nadelmann suggested the current crisis could and should open debate about effective demand reduction strategies. “If we want to help Mexico by reducing demand, and want to give the notion more than lip service, then we have to remove the ideological inhibitions that limit our ability to effectively reduce demand,” he said. “A small number of drug users consume a significant portion of all drugs. The traditional answer is to get more serious about drug treatment and rehab, but it could also mean providing addicts with legal sources of the drugs they are consuming. We know it works with heroin; the same approach deserves to be tried with cocaine and meth.”
“The other thing we can do,” Nadelmann argued, “is to move in the direction of legalizing marijuana. We know have 40% of Americans in favor of it, and it’s approaching 50% out West. This is the first time a furor over drug-related violence has been so powerfully linked with marijuana prohibition. That mere fact that so many law enforcement people are saying it lends it credibility. This is putting the notion of marijuana legalization as a partial solution to prohibition-related violence on the edge of the mainstream political discussion in the US. With the Ammiano bill in California, Barney Frank’s bill waiting to be introduced, Sen. Webb pushing for his commission, the conversation is really bubbling up now.”
And so it goes. As the prohibition-related violence in Mexico continues and as the US appears to be heading down the reflexive path of fighting drug war failure with more drug war, the prohibitionist consensus grows ever more brittle. It’s a shame that so many Mexicans have to die to get us to shift the direction of our dialogue on drugs.
