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| Council On Hemispheric Affairs |
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| Memorandum to the Press 05.01 |
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Word Count: 1200
Is Bermuda’s Independence Near? Unlikely.
•
The debate over Bermuda’s independence continues with intensity, but without
much success in a country that possessed self-rule for centuries.
• The tsunami tragedy has absorbed the island colony, but a political tsunami
that will bring on independence is not likely to occur.
• Recent polls indicate that more than sixty percent of Bermudians shun independence.
• Bermuda’s Premier Alex Scott leads the independence movement, but according
to polls, he almost goes out of his way to misinterpret public sentiment on
the issue, which could politically cost him dearly.
• Were Bermuda to gain autonomy, little would in fact change, because when
it comes to internal issues, its government possesses plenary power.
The island of Bermuda has been a British colony since 1684, and relations
between the two have almost always been amicable, even as talk of the island
gaining its independence has become more frequent. Today, Bermuda is one of
few entities in the world that has willingly maintained it dependant status.
Rather than torrid nationalism, its politics are fueled by torpid debate and
hyper concern that nothing threatens the political golden goose of commercialism.
The call for complete sovereignty is indisputably identified with Premier
Alex Scott, after it emerged as a sizzling movement loosely associated with
that of “black power,” which has gained considerable ascendancy on the island
in the 1980s. Scott passionately believes that independence would dramatically
alter the tiny island of just 20.75 square miles for the better. However,
according to opinion polls, most Bermudians are happy with the political status
quo and the relative prosperity it provides them. Despite declining approval
ratings, Scott appears ready to put his political career on the line, willing
to risk his personal political future in order to achieve independence for
Bermuda.
Scott came to power in July of 2003, after the Progressive Labor Party (PLP)
defeated the predominantly white United Bermuda Party (UBP) in parliamentary
elections by 22 seats to 14. He replaced then-leader of the PLP, Premier Jennifer
Smith, after an internal revolt in which party members refused to serve under
her administration; mainly, they resented the autocratic style of Colonel
David Burch, her unelected aide and senator. Scott, who had previously served
as works and engineering minister, was the popular contender for the premiership,
which he later won in a party vote.
Well-Off the Way It Is
In a May 2004 survey conducted by the Bermuda Sun newspaper and Research
Innovations, an independent island polling firm, 61.4 percent of Bermudians
said that they were opposed to independence. 21.4 percent supported the move
and 17.2 percent were undecided. These figures graphically indicated that
a decisive majority of islanders are happy under nominal British rule and
believe that achieving sovereignty would do little to improve the well-being
of the colony or its citizens. Despite its status as a British colony, the
island enjoys full self-rule regarding internal affairs, and a close and privileged
relationship with the United States, with a majority of its imports and tourism
coming from its powerful neighbor. Britain does not even rank among Bermuda’s
top five trading partners, and has adopted an amiable laissez-faire
approach to governing the island. In practice, Bermuda’s parliamentary system
enjoys a plenary degree of self-governing autonomy and essentially functions
independently of its imperial mother on a daily basis.
Bermuda is also more than capable of sustaining itself economically. With
an economy based on tourism and a very strong international financial services
sector, the island numbering 64,935 permanent residents enjoys one of the
highest per capita incomes in the world—equal to that of the United States.
Bermuda’s lack of sovereignty clearly does not hurt its economic prospects
and self-sufficiency. As a strong proponent of his country’s independence,
however, Premier Scott strongly feels otherwise and is attempting on an urgent
basis to return the issue of the future status of the island to the limelight,
in spite of its persistent frosty public reception.
Votes for Change?
During the 1970s, a tumultuous period featuring racial tensions on the island,
talk about black power and separation from Britain began to gain impetus.
For the next number of years, the issue waxed and waned, but a referendum
staged in 1995 calling for an end to colonial rule failed to show much progress
for its advocates, with almost three-quarters of the electorate voting against
it. Scott is betting that public sentiment has changed since then, and is
pushing for another vote on the issue. In a November 14 speech delivered to
the Bermuda Society Annual Dinner in London, he announced that in January
2005, the newly-formed Bermuda Independence Committee (BIC), “a broad-based
group enjoying wide representation and a diversity of views, will begin to
generate and encourage the widest possible discussion on independence in all
of its facets.” Once the initiative starts gaining tempo, Scott hopes that
the majority of its members will fall in line behind the belief that Bermuda
should seek the autonomy he feels it deserves and is ready for. Yet Scott’s
failure to adjust to the hard fact that the majority of Bermudians have shown
no inclination for independence is a handicap which could seriously jeopardize
his political career. Almost purposefully misinterpreting the Research Innovations
poll, Scott even told the Royal Gazette newspaper that, “there is
another very significant finding from a poll conducted by the Omnibus Group—I
think that’s their corporate title—that more than 70 percent of individuals
polled indicated that they wished to have [more] information on Independence.”
A Different Agenda
Despite the overwhelming opposition to independence among islanders, Scott
argues with the rival UBP over how the question of independence should be
framed. In his desire to avoid the same outcome that resulted in 1995, the
Premier would like the issue to be decided by means of a general election.
The UBP, on the other hand, prefers to settle the matter by means of a referendum.
Such arguments seem to somewhat miss the point, however, since there is little
difference between the two forms of balloting, and especially because current
public sentiment has indicated that the measure has no hope of passing in
either dress. Pushing the question of independence further into the political
forefront has done little to help Scott’s own political standing. Misinterpreting
the results of the survey and advocating something Bermudians do not support
will not boost the Premier’s ever-declining approval rating, which currently
registers at an alarming (from his perspective) 37.3 percent (down from 80
percent a year ago).
In Scott’s words: "Bermudians are unique. We want change but we don't
want things to change." Bermuda’s switch to a sovereign nation would
mark a huge change, one that its citizens apparently do not desire, at least
at this time. From Scott’s disappointed perspective from the capital of Hamilton,
too many islanders presently feel that granting the island independence would
only create new problems, something the Bermudan government, under its current
colonial status, has never had to face.
This
analysis was prepared by Ashley Rasmussen, COHA Research
Associate.
January
4, 2005
COHA
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