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1250 Connecticut Ave. NW, |
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Council On Hemispheric Affairs |
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Monitoring
Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting the Western Hemisphere |
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Memorandum to the Press 05.06 |
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Word Count: 1200
Yesterday George W. Bush officially began his second term in office and those
familiar with U.S.-Latin American relations have little hope for improved
ties between Washington and its traditional “backyard.” Ever since the attacks
of September 11, 2001, the region has been all but forgotten as the wars
in Afghanistan and Iraq have consumed U.S. resources and attention. Little
is likely to change with the coming confirmation of super hawk and Sovietologist
Condoleezza Rice, who has uttered scarcely a word on Latin America, as Secretary
of State Colin Powell’s replacement. Here is a look at what the Bush administration
has done in Latin America during the last four years and what to expect during
the next four.
Powell and the Haiti Situation
By belatedly introducing U.S. and foreign forces into Haiti following the February
29, 2004 ousting of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, Washington guaranteed
that Haiti’s deeply scarred society is unlikely to easily recuperate from
the wounds inflicted on it by foreign and domestic villains, including the
bankrupt current interim Prime Minister Gerard Latortue’s government. Of
all those who played a role in bringing down Aristide’s constitutional rule,
outgoing Secretary of State Powell’s reputation is most likely to be tarnished.
In effect, he willingly became the captive of the Bush administration’s obsessive
right-wing ideologues—the fateful sons of former Senator Jesse Helms—led
by Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega and former White House aide
Otto Reich. Reich and Noriega saw U.S.-Latin American relations almost exclusively
through the prism of full-time Havana bashing. If a Latin American government
displayed a moderate and respectful attitude towards the Castro regime, it
became the unremitting target of their ire.
Rather than staunchly backing pragmatic initiatives aimed at constructively
relieving the regions’ social deficits—particularly the continued expansion
of poverty and concentration of wealth—Powell’s relatively few speeches on
Latin America emphasized only trade, market reform and an overly simplified
view of the need for democracy expansion. Additionally, rather than genuine
concern, Powell’s interest in human rights always seemed to reflect selective
indignation towards left-wing regimes, like Venezuela. When it came to the
region’s reaction to the Iraq war, Powell saw to it that a number of Latin
American nations were dragooned into joining the “Coalition of the Willing.”
As for those that continued to dissent, such as the Chilean and Mexican ambassadors
to the UN, he pressured their respective government’s to withdraw them from
their post. It is little surprise then, that an estimated 85 percent of Latin
Americans were opposed to a Bush victory in the 2004 presidential election.
Rice and Latin America
Powell, at least occasionally, addressed hemispheric issues. One cannot say
the same of his successor, Secretary of State designee Condoleezza Rice.
She has barely mentioned the region in public and in what may very well have
been one of her most profound statement involving hemispheric issues as National
Security Advisor, Rice chided Jamaican Prime Minister P.J. Patterson for
admitting the exiled Aristide into his country so he could reunite with his
family.
Aside from attacking Cuba as an “outpost of tyranny” and calling the actions
of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’ government “very deeply troubling,”
as she did during her Senate confirmation hearing, Rice has shown neither a
substantial interest nor a particular competence regarding
the region. There will certainly be no softening of the U.S.’ position toward
Cuba during Bush’s second term and she likely will use her
Cold War-bred intellectual credentials to hunt down any left-wing manifestations
in the region.
What less ideological eyes would see as a new generation of populist leaders,
in Rice’s hawkish vision the current heads of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and
Uruguay appear as potential nettlesome leftists who could eventually pose a
threat to vital U.S. national interests. Be it extending or intensifying the
perimeter of the White House’s anti-terrorism war or expanding the U.S. Southern
Command’s sphere of operation, under Rice’s jurisdiction, a version of the
Cold War could soon be brought to Latin America. This is particularly true
if she interprets Bush’s call for freedom and liberty as a battle cry to expel
dissident political figures like Castro or Chávez from power.
Venezuela’s New Partner…China
Relations between the U.S. and Venezuela have remained frosty ever since the
Congressionally-funded National Endowment for Democracy (NED) helped finance
the conservative opposition’s unsuccessful coup against Chávez in April
2002. Washington will no doubt have to sharpen its eye on Chinese-Venezuelan
relations as those two nations recently signed a deal to increase their trade
to $3 billion annually. Venezuela, whose 77.8 billion barrels is the largest
proven oil reserve in the Western Hemisphere, currently supplies up to 15%
of the U.S.’ imported petroleum. As the usual combative rhetoric between the
Bush administration and Chávez continues at an even more frenzied pace,
and with China threatening the U.S.’ consumption of Venezuelan oil, Washington
already has begun exploring its “contingency plans,” as requested by the Republican
chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Richard Lugar.
Central America and Free Trade
As for Central America, Washington is not all that dismayed by the elevated
levels of corruption and drug trafficking in the region, which is extracting
a high toll on El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua and even Costa Rica. As
gang violence also spirals out of control, Washington remains more interested
in getting the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), along with
the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), enacted. Strong opposition
to both, however, for their failure to ensure acceptable labor rights and
environmental protection, is certain to hurt their chances of being ratified
and implemented. Additionally, as the number of Central American refugees
in the U.S. grows, they will become an increasingly powerful voting bloc
that the Bush administration will no doubt court. Many of these immigrants
were victims of U.S. policies in the 1980s (i.e. the civil wars in Guatemala,
El Salvador and Nicaragua), hence the Republicans see it as imperative to
win back their gratitude in order not to lose such a potentially important
new voting bloc to the Democrats. The key, it seems, will be a liberal immigration
status involving a process of legalization.
The War on Drugs
Colombia will likely continue to be a problem over the next four years. Critics
often have accused the administration of putting the drug war on the back-burner
because no easy victory was in sight. In 2000, Washington did enact the multibillion
dollar Plan Colombia to combat that country’s drug industry, but
it has done little to reduce the amount of Colombian cocaine arriving to
the U.S. Since
the drug remains widely available and because many observers believe
Bush has neglected efforts to reduce U.S. consumption, a policy of ‘more
of the
same’
can be expected for the next four years. Furthermore, regardless of whether
it should be sent in the first place, the aid that Colombia receives from
Washington is far from being enough both in economic and military terms to
achieve Washington’s goals. If anything, the aid simply dries up too quickly
or is diverted by corruption, with the costly endless war in the country
certain to continue taking its deadly toll.
This
analysis was
authored by COHA staff and compiled by Research Fellow David R.
Kolker.
January
21, 2005
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